Morgan Stanley increases forecast for China's humanoid robot shipments amid rapid commercialization

Jun 24, 2026

AI Summary

Morgan Stanley has revised its forecast for China's humanoid robot shipments, now expecting 50,000 units in 2023, nearly double its previous estimate. The bank anticipates the market will grow significantly, reaching $2 billion this year and $15 billion by 2030, driven by increased commercialization and government support.

Morgan Stanley has raised its forecast for China's humanoid robot shipments to 50,000 units for 2023, up from 28,000. This follows an earlier increase from an initial estimate of 14,000 units in January.
The bank projects the humanoid robot market in China will be worth $2 billion this year and grow to $15 billion by 2030, with annual shipments expected to reach 446,000 units by that time.
Factors contributing to this growth include commercial verification, policy support, and supply-chain feedback, indicating faster adoption of humanoid robots in various sectors.
China is focusing on dominating the humanoid robotics industry, with numerous domestic manufacturers scaling production for applications in factories, convenience stores, and restaurants.
The Chinese government has prioritized the development of embodied AI and is providing support to startups through subsidies and favorable lending terms.
Last year, approximately 13,000 humanoid robots were shipped globally, with Chinese companies leading the market.
Morgan Stanley identified Leaderdrive as a key beneficiary of the humanoid robotics market, raising its target price significantly due to expected strong demand.
Chinese robotics firms are also looking to expand internationally, with companies like Seer Intelligent increasing their overseas revenue.
Geopolitical tensions and trade issues pose challenges for Chinese robotics companies as they seek to diversify their markets and comply with local regulations.

humanoid robotschinacommercializationmarket forecastrobotics industry

Morgan Stanley increases forecast for China's humanoid robot shipments amid rapid commercialization

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